Quote: Lazzard @ 1st June 2024, 11:55 AMI just hope they get enough of a majority to get things done.
"My analysis on tonight's MRP survey of 10,000 people by Electoral Calculus for GB News and the Daily Mail, the first such poll of the election campaign:
The poll lays bare the risk that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has taken with his party's MPs by choosing to go to the country six months before he had to. It makes for a devastating read for the Conservatives.
Electoral Calculus found that tactical voting is likely to be a big deal at this election: Labour wins either 493 MPs (with no tactical voting) or 476 MPs (with tactical voting), according to the poll.
The corresponding figures for the Conservatives are 72 and 66. This is a threat to the Tory party's very existence - no political party has a right to exist.
The Tory party would only just have more MPs than the Liberal Democrats, who could win 59 MPs despite winning just 10 per cent of the votes.
Richard Tice's Reform UK party is set to win 12 per cent of the votes - the third biggest national vote share - and yet be left with not a single MP.
The forecast Labour victory would be larger than Tony Blair's landslide in 1997 and be the largest win by any party in modern parliamentary history, except for 1931.
Heads are predicted to roll among Tory big beasts with 18 Cabinet ministers set to be turfed out of office: Oliver Dowden, James Cleverly, Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt, Kemi Badenoch, Claire Coutinho, Mel Stride, Gillian Keegan, Mark Harper, David Davies, Victoria Prentis, Esther McVey, Andrew Mitchell and Johnny Mercer all replaced by Labour MPs.
The forecast result is nothing less than a warning for the Tories that they have to go all out to prevent what could be an extinction-level event for the party, one of the most disastrous election results on British history, or get steam-rollered by Sir Keir Starmer's Labour party on July 4."