A Horseradish
Monday 23rd March 2020 10:27am [Edited]
8,475 posts
Quote: chipolata @ 23rd March 2020, 6:49 AM
Queen Meghan would be great. It's about time we had a hot Queen ruling over us.
I have a few problems with this. The people in charge care about the economy above all else. This pandemic is taking a wrecking ball to the world economy and world markets, which is going to take us years to recover from. And if the ultimate plan is to usher in some form of selective fascism, then that isn't going to help the economy. In fact any kind of totalitarianism is bad for economic growth. Look at totalitarian regimes in history and they're all poor.
I think I've said it before, I enjoy a good conspiracy theory but the ones connected to coronavirus lack logic.
Thank you for your comments. I always appreciate someone bothering.
I've never been an economist but I think it goes like this. Tell me where I am wrong. Let us say for the sake or argument that the impacts global warming could reduce the money in all business globally by 60% in the next 30 years. Obviously the percentage would be higher or lower individually depending on where the business was located and what it entailed.
And then let us say the green economy could make up some of the difference once fully up and running but the overall economy would still be operating at 75% of what it is currently. Until now business behaviour and consumers' behaviour has shifted greenwards only marginally. It looks set never to adapt until it's too late unless it has reasons to be pushed.
What happens in the next 30 years without coronavirus ever happening is that there is slow decline of the global economy as global warming impacts are slight and then a rapid decline when they become severe. Given that the planet is so mucked up, that is entirely unrecoverable. Business along with other things becomes a shadow of its former self.
But if policy on coronavirus can trigger a comparatively minor cataclysm now with behaviour changing radically and business having to be far more quickly greened and restructured, the big hit is taken now so it isn't even bigger two decades on with a planet falling on its side. Business won't be what it was but it will be stronger than the alternative.
So, that virus peak in Mr Vallance's graph. The one which he wants to lengthen, flatten and broaden so that the NHS can cope better. It could equally be read on a thirty year time frame as the ice caps melting with the equivalent to the NHS here being business in the global economy itself needing more time to adapt to global warming. In both cases, this time can be gained by a short sharp shock now in which things are done differently more quickly by reluctant human beings.
What do you think of this idea?