Tursiops
Wednesday 14th April 2010 3:03pm
Welwyn Garden City
9,788 posts
Quote: Jack Massey @ April 14 2010, 2:49 PM BST
Think of it like this, my constituency (Oldham East & Saddleworth) is very tight between Labour and the Lib Dems, the Conservatives have absolutely no chance of winning the seat and it is basically a 50-50 chance between Labour and the Lib Dems. Nationally, only two parties have a chance of winning the overall election, Labour and the Conservatives (this goes without the mind boggling and not going to happen 'Hung Parliament'). So by me voting for the conservatives, I'm actually not really having an impact on the election nationally, yet if I voted for the Lib Dems, I would be having an impact in favour of the Conservatives as it will increase Labour's chances of losing the seat and giving them less chance of winning the election overall.
So going to vote Labour just to play a part in hopefully (yet unlikely I'm sorry to say) stop David C**tameron moving into number 10.
But you won't be increasing the chances pf the Tories gaining an overall majority, you will simply be shifting the balance of probability from a Labour overall majority to a hung Parlaiment.
In fact the chances of a Tory overall majority are slim in any case; the way the votes stack up inthe constituencies mean that the Tories would need well in excess of 40% to for an overall majority, and they are not polling anything like that. Labour in contrast could probaly do it on less than 35% of the vote. But a hung parliament remains at the moment by far the most likely outcome.