I read the news today oh boy! Page 2,475

Thee was an incident of 'tweaking' from YouGov, just before the 2017 election.
They had it as a narrow lead - possibly hung - but under pressure to get it right, in light of the incorrect prediction for 2015 (for which they were mocked), they did tweak the result.
They gave the Tories a couple of more percentage points lead.
In fact their original prediction was spot on, and delivered Theresa May's unworkable parliament.
You Gov have only got the order of the vote wrong twice - 2015 (see above) and the 2016 EU vote, when the called it the wrong way - albeit it narrowly.
These are the only two results they called wrong. https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/2uo7zs3zo8/Record_of_Accuracy_YG_w.pdf

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Very good.
I'm sure there must be something in "The Kwazi Gang", too.

Quote: Alfred J Kipper @ 30th September 2022, 9:27 AM

The polls have got every election forecast wrong in the last decade at least so I wouldn't pay any attention to them. But history tells us that governments rarely do more than 15year stints and when they do, it usually leads to a big majority for the opposition and that's why Truss is going for it with full cream Tory idealist policies that are rarely allowed out of their dreams - as she knows she's been left with just two years in office whatever she does.

So the more radical Tory policies in place when Labour take over, the harder it is for them to get them back to the level they want. It's Machiavellian, but then Brown did exactly the same in his two years as PM - putting the higher tax rate up to 50% as a leaving present for the new Cameron govt.

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That's nonsense. Gordon Brown was sincerely trying to tackle the problem of debt. Truss is doing the exact opposite.

Didn't he sell our gold reserves at rock bottom prices?

That's your opinion. My opinion and not just mine is he set an elephant trap for Osbourne. It's obvious taxes on the rich bring in far, far less than taxes on middle and lower income earners as they outnumber the wealthy heavily so it was purely political.

Er that's to Chris, Stephen, not you.

A proportion of them, yes.
Which he invested in the currency markets- a safer bet on paper.
Conveniently, the (actual) profits made from this are never set against the (notional) losses of his early sale.
What's more mysterious is why Cameron didn't sell off the rest when Gold (a fairly cumbersome asset for a nation to hold) was its peak - squandering far more than Brown ever lost.

I knew that
I'll send Lazzard on a Google hunt again...
Despite what the media say, there is no official recession. UK businesses are doing fine and GDP is up.
Where's the shitshow you are all crying about?
It's getting far worse in the EU.

Quote: Alfred J Kipper @ 30th September 2022, 10:25 AM

That's your opinion. My opinion and not just mine is he set an elephant trap for Osbourne. It's obvious taxes on the rich bring in far, far less than taxes on middle and lower income earners as they outnumber the wealthy heavily so it was purely political.

Er that's to Chris, Stephen, not you.

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So, you're saying increasing the highest rate of tax reduces the amount of revenue? It doesn't.
And it was hardly a "trap." Everyone knows what the tax rate is. It was easy enough for Osborne to change the tax rate when the Tories took power.

Quote: Stephen Goodlad @ 30th September 2022, 10:39 AM

I knew that
I'll send Lazzard on a Google hunt again...
Despite what the media say, there is no official recession. UK businesses are doing fine and GDP is up.
Where's the shitshow you are all crying about?
It's getting far worse in the EU.

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Er...the pound?

Quote: Stephen Goodlad @ 30th September 2022, 10:39 AM

I knew that
I'll send Lazzard on a Google hunt again...
.

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I know.
Imagine wanting to base your arguments on facts, rather than on what some bloke told you down the pub!
The BofE thinks we're in recession, we're recovering from the Covid financial hit far slower than only other G7 country, and any business that depends on consumer spending is in for a terrible winter.
Apart from that your mate down the pub's analysis is spot on.
Tell him he might want to try Google next time.

Quote: Chris Hallam @ 30th September 2022, 10:52 AM

So, you're saying increasing the highest rate of tax reduces the amount of revenue?

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I didn't say that but some say if it's set too high it could. The amount it brings in is nothing like the amount a middle income tax brings in. Even if you went back to 90% Wilson govt. tax rates, the very rich have means of bypassing it, and the state ends up with even less from them than before or at best the cost of deploying staff to police it and bring it all in makes the tax hike hardly worth it. Then added to that is the political damage it does to Labour for penalising the main wealth creators for the country as we saw in the 60s and 70s.

How condescending can you be. You cherry pick your facts but mine are all from the pub.
The righteous brothers live.

Quote: Chris Hallam @ 30th September 2022, 10:52 AM

And it was hardly a "trap."

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Cameron called it "A trap set by Gordon Brown." early in his PMship. It was a political mine, they had to carefully undo.

Quote: Chris Hallam @ 30th September 2022, 10:52 AM

It was easy enough for Osborne to change the tax rate when the Tories took power.

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No it wasn't at all. It led to Labour cries of the Tories helping their rich mates as soon they got in, which was the exact purpose of Brown's political ploy. And Osborne could only reasonably drop it to 45%, not the 40% they would have if it hadn't been raised by Brown in his last act as PM.

Quote: Chris Hallam @ 30th September 2022, 10:03 AM

Gordon Brown was sincerely trying to tackle the problem of debt. Truss is doing the exact opposite.

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Quote: Alfred J Kipper @ 30th September 2022, 11:53 AM

Cameron called it "A trap set by Gordon Brown." early in his PMship. It was a political mine, they had to carefully undo.

No it wasn't at all. It led to Labour cries of the Tories helping their rich mates as soon they got in, which was the exact purpose of Brown's political ploy. And Osborne could only reasonably drop it back to 45%, not the 40% they would have, if it hadn't been raised by Brown as his last act in charge.

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It wasn't his last act, it was ages before Labour left power. And Brown wasn't Chancellor then anyway?
A nice time to discuss the 1970s. Now why don't we discuss the fact the Tories have single handedly wrecked the economy THIS WEEK ?