General Election 2010 Page 118

Quote: Aaron @ May 10 2010, 6:30 PM BST

I think any flavour of coalition - considering the current seat distribution, party policies, and huge issues facing the country - would be pretty fragile. Less so for Conservative/Liberal because they'd have a greater majority, but still liable to collapse.

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I agree, but I don't think a formal Tory-Lib Dem coalition has ever been likely. A less formal agreement, perhaps.

There are a lot of options still on the table, though. Don't rule out a Tory minority Government yet.

Quote: Badge @ May 10 2010, 6:36 PM BST

There are a lot of options still on the table, though. Don't rule out a Tory minority Government yet.

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I'm assuming that the deal has been done. Gordon's announcement is part of it. If Brown can pass a vote of confidence, he carries on. Correct? Cameron has no 'right' to form a minority Government.

Quote: JohnnyD @ May 10 2010, 6:42 PM BST

I'm assuming that the deal has been done. Gordon's announcement is part of it. If Brown can pass a vote of confidence, he carries on. Correct? Cameron has no 'right' to form a minority Government.

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I'm sure the Lib-Lab option is favourite now but it could still be a bargaining tool for Clegg to get more out of the Tories, and everyone could still end up throwing their toys out of the pram. Cameron would only have a 'right' to go to the Queen if a Lib-Lab agreement couldn't be worked out.

I don't think Clegg could ever deal with the Tories. His Party faithful would desert in droves and the next election would be a disaster.

Quote: JohnnyD @ May 10 2010, 6:51 PM BST

I don't think Clegg could ever deal with the Tories. His Party faithful would desert in droves and the next election would be a disaster.

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Yes but promises of power can do strange things to people. They'll also be trying to weigh up how it will play if they are seen to be propping up a Labour Party that got a fair kicking last week.

Quote: Badge @ May 10 2010, 6:53 PM BST

Yes but promises of power can do strange things to people.

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I don't doubt Clegg might be seduced by a deal. And, maybe, subsequently join the Tory Party. But I don't think he could bring the MPs with him.

There are many disadvanges to the libdems to the labour pact.

1. They still don't have enough votes.
2. An unelected PM. Okay we don't vote for "PM" but only a fool would disagree that it doesn't play a part.
3. As Badge says they are propping up a "losing" party - what will happen the next time they face the polls?
4. Without the votes it is a weak goverment that could fall quickly. What funds do they have to fight an election in 6 months.

Either way, they would be propping up a losing party. Nobody won enough seats to make this simple. But I see they have already got more out of the Tories on PR than they did in 3 days of negotiations.

Quote: JohnnyD @ May 10 2010, 6:42 PM BST

I'm assuming that the deal has been done. Gordon's announcement is part of it. If Brown can pass a vote of confidence, he carries on. Correct?

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In theory. But he's unlikely to be able to, even if he hadn't just effectively quit.

Quote: JohnnyD @ May 10 2010, 6:51 PM BST

I don't think Clegg could ever deal with the Tories. His Party faithful would desert in droves and the next election would be a disaster.

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Apparently they've been piling in in support of the Conservative coalition over the past 24 hours. (Probably less so now, of course.) Most would have thought they would be a little more hostile, but perhaps they're more balanced and reasoned than many had them down as.

Quote: Badge @ May 10 2010, 6:53 PM BST

Yes but promises of power can do strange things to people. They'll also be trying to weigh up how it will play if they are seen to be propping up a Labour Party that got a fair kicking last week.

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And is hugely unpopular, despite their polling. Labour supporters shouldn't think that Thursdays results resemble any particular backing of their party: more that they bought into the "no time for a novice" argument on the economy. The Lib Dems seem to have kept this in mind, to an extent. Whether they'll forget that and decide it's Gordon that was unpopular rather than the party as a whole (true to a % but by no means majority, IMO) remains to be seen.

Quote: bigfella @ May 10 2010, 7:24 PM BST

2. An unelected PM. Okay we don't vote for "PM" but only a fool would disagree that it doesn't play a part.

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Particularly given that we had those TV debates. It'd be massively, massively unpopular: they'd probably have to put Clegg in Number 10 from that POV, but that wouldn't be realistic as he still came 3rd in the polls.

Quote: bigfella @ May 10 2010, 7:24 PM BST

4. Without the votes it is a weak goverment that could fall quickly. What funds do they have to fight an election in 6 months.

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Supposedly all 3 were mindful to keep money aside. The two Ls would REALLY struggle to put on another full campaign though.

What Clegg is seemingly about to do is totally immoral, utterly unfair and fantastically brilliant. Welcome to politics Nick, it's about time you grew some cajones.

Quote: Aaron @ May 10 2010, 7:38 PM BST

In theory. But he's unlikely to be able to, even if he hadn't just effectively quit.

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In theory? It's called The British Constitution.

Effectively quit? Effective in September.

Quote: Aaron @ May 10 2010, 7:38 PM BST

Apparently they've been piling in in support of the Conservative coalition over the past 24 hours.

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Apparently ...

Quote: JohnnyD @ May 10 2010, 7:51 PM BST

In theory? It's called The British Constitution.

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Yes, in theory. A vote of confidence is not a formality. And our constitution is uncodified, so anything could still happen.

Quote: JohnnyD @ May 10 2010, 7:51 PM BST

Effectively quit? Effective in September.

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Effective by September. This announcement makes it unlikely he'll remain in Number 10 next Monday.

Interestingly, Krishnan Guru-Murthy predicted almost exactly this bizarre situation: http://order-order.com/2010/05/09/clegg-meets-brown-deal-yet-to-be-struck/

Our uncodified constitution is called The British Constitution. There are books about it.

Anyway, what's gonna happen to the Conservative Party? In my opinion, a major backlash against fast-tracking toffs who only enter Politics out of ennui.

Quote: JohnnyD @ May 10 2010, 8:10 PM BST

Our uncodified constitution is called The British Constitution. There are books about it.

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Which makes absolutely no difference whatsoever.

The electoral method that is closest to ideal Proportional Representation is the Party list system used in many European countries ?

Each party makes a list of candidates. The electorate vote on a per party basis and then the seats are allocated in proportion from the party lists.

The main snag from this system is that you don't get to elect "your" MP, you get one allocated by the parties, so there is no feel of direct representation & responsibility to their constituency.

Here's my idea for an alternative PR voting system, if PR is wanted.

I suppose one way around the lack of direct representation would be to have two elections, divide the country into near equal population constituencies & then each party puts up a candidate for each constituency. One seat per constituency.

The first election is votes for each candidate, they go onto the party lists,ranked in order of the highest votes (across the whole country).

The second election is just votes per party.

On the results the seats to be allocated proportionately i.e if there are 300 seats and party A has 50% of the second election votes, they should take the top 150 candidates from their list and then where possible allocate them to represent the constituencey that voted for them and so on i.e. if party B has 33% of the second vote they take the top 100 candidates from their list and so on.

Where two candidates from one constituency both get seats they should be the constituency reps on alternate years.

Where none of the candidates for a given constituency make it to be MPs there must be other constituencies with double reps so they get one who is currently on the alternate year ie. not currently the rep for their original constituencies.

Possibly one has a third election whereby a constituency get to choose which of the 'surplus' MPs are to be their reps or which other constituency they are paired with to share their reps on alternate years.