CERN

It was mentioned on "Mock the Week" this week that the chances of the CERN Large Hadron Collider, the largest particle accelator in the world, causing a black hole is 1 in 50,000,000.

Interesitngly, you are more likely to burn to death while you sleep (1 in 48,000,000), be murdered (1 in 30,000,000), die in a plane crash (1 in 11,000,000), be struck by lightning (1 in 10,000,000), be struck by an asteroid (1 in 6,000,000), drown in the bath (1 in 685,000) or die today (1 in 257,000).

However, death by black hole is more likely than chocking to death (1 in 120,000,000), falling coconuts (1 in 250,000,000) or shark attacks (1 in 300,000,000).

So, are you worried about CERN, or do you think it is just hype?

Wikipedia article about the Collider

I'm not even remotely bothered about some hacky statistics.

I've got a bad feeling about this.

Quote: Ian Wolf @ September 4 2008, 10:02 PM BST

die in a plane crash (1 in 11,000,000), be struck by lightning (1 in 10,000,000), be struck by an asteroid (1 in 6,000,000)

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You are more likely to be struck by an asteroid than die in a plane crash or be struck by lightening? Are you sure about that? Can't remember anyone dying of incoming asteroid, but can remember quite a few plane crash and lightening victims!

So, are you worried about CERN, or do you think it is just hype?

It has been blown out of all proportion beyond belief - very possibly the media doing some scare mongering.
Black holes are not all humongous, in theory there are lots around us but they're so small we don't notice them and they have no noticable effect.
If they made a black hole at CERN, it would be one of these. They would not have anything like the energy needed to produce something dangerous.

I know they wouldn't do it if it was 1 in 50 million. I can't see anyone going - '1 in 50 million that it'll destroy the world? F**k it, I'm feeling lucky'. It's probably more like one in 50 billion.

Do you remember in late 97ish that the media were convinced an asteroid was going to hit the earth and destroy it?

It missed by 800,000 miles. However, astronomically speaking, that's still a close shave.

I hate all this kind of thing.

Just as I'm doing well, it'd be typical for the world to screw me over.

Quote: Winterlight @ September 4 2008, 10:13 PM BST

Do you remember in late 97ish that the media were convinced an asteroid was going to hit the earth and destroy it?

It missed by 800,000 miles. However, astronomically speaking, that's still a close shave.

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Yeah. That's known as a 'Gillette' to NASA.

Quote: ian_w @ September 4 2008, 10:10 PM BST

You are more likely to be struck by an asteroid than die in a plane crash or be struck by lightening? Are you sure about that? Can't remember anyone dying of incoming asteroid, but can remember quite a few plane crash and lightening victims!

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According to QI, you are more likely to be struck by an asteroid than being struck by lightning in the UK. A large asteroid strikes the Earth once every million years. The expected death-toll is to be in excess of 1 billion people. The chances of dying of an asteroid are therefore 1 in 6,000,000 in a year.

As far as plane crashs go, there are actually quite a lot, but for most of the time, no-one dies. So statistically, the chances of death in a plane crash are lowed.

Quote: Ian Wolf @ September 4 2008, 10:16 PM BST

According to QI, you are more likely to be struck by an asteroid than being struck by lightning in the UK. A large asteroid strikes the Earth once every million years. The expected death-toll is to be in excess of 1 billion people. The chances of dying of an asteroid are therefore 1 in 6,000,000 in a year.

As far as plane crashs go, there are actually quite a lot, but for most of the time, no-one dies. So statistically, the chances of death in a plane crash are lowed.

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Hmm, but I just don't buy it - purely because I have heard cases of the other two, but never the asteroid thing. To me that suggests a greater likelihood of the first two happening.

I'm with ian!

*edit*
(ha! erm. didn't do that on purpose.)

Quote: zooo @ September 4 2008, 10:31 PM BST

I'm with ian!

*edit*
(ha! erm. didn't do that on purpose.)

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Ian W, or Ian W?

Well, precisely.

Quote: Seefacts @ September 4 2008, 10:14 PM BST

Yeah. That's known as a 'Gillette' to NASA.

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Very good.

Quote: zooo @ September 4 2008, 10:10 PM BST

I've got a bad feeling about this.

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Ditto.

Only 5 days now!

Till we all DIE.

Anyone else going to use this as a *fantastic* pulling line this weekend? Not only is it an excuse for easy sex, but it's also a way to filter out people that don't keep up with current events. An important factor in every one night stand.