I read the news today oh boy! Page 2,756

Well it's a bit like you condemning Trump every five minutes but calling people you don't agree with, morons just like he does. But no one's perfect.

Quote: Lazzard @ 1st March 2024, 10:34 AM

With the heat gone of Gaza by November,

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Winner of the most optimistic prediction of the year so far.

Quote: chipolata @ 1st March 2024, 11:49 AM

I predict you to be completely and utterly wrong.

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I'm fine with that, and if I'm not, you will be. I don't know how anyone can take the polls seriously after their catastrophic failures. So I'm just playing the same game of throwing out wild predictions like they are, but without making money like they do. If they were any other type of business they'd have folded by now.

Quote: Alfred J Kipper @ 2nd March 2024, 4:16 AM

Well it's a bit like you condemning Trump every five minutes but calling people you don't agree with, morons just like he does. But no one's perfect.

Winner of the most optimistic prediction of the year so far.

I'm fine with that, and if I'm not, you will be. I don't know how anyone can take the polls seriously after their catastrophic failures. So I'm just playing the same game of throwing out wild predictions like they are, but without making money like they do. If they were any other type of business they'd have folded by now.

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They are a business. Not sure they've usually been dramatically wrong?
2016: most polls (and Farage) predict narrow Remain win. Leave narrowly win.
2016: most polls predict narrow Clinton win. Clinton wins 2 million more votes but loses election.
2017: polls predict Tory win. Tories win narrowly
2019: polls predict Tory win. Tories win.
2020: polls predict Biden will beat Trump. Biden beats Trump.

Different polls for different trolls.

Quote: Stephen Goodlad @ 2nd March 2024, 9:59 AM

Different polls for different trolls.

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What does that mean?
Rude. As usual.

Quote: Chris Hallam @ 2nd March 2024, 8:27 AM

They are a business. Not sure they've usually been dramatically wrong?
2016: most polls (and Farage) predict narrow Remain win. Leave narrowly win.
2016: most polls predict narrow Clinton win. Clinton wins 2 million more votes but loses election.
2017: polls predict Tory win. Tories win narrowly
2019: polls predict Tory win. Tories win.
2020: polls predict Biden will beat Trump. Biden beats Trump.

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Go back a year and they got it very wrong, Tories won by a landslide after polls had it very close, a projected hung parliament by some, plus they and the bookmakers didn't see Corbyn coming in the same year. Trump's win was a fairly resounding win in the electoral college, so her 2 million extra votes didn't matter a jot. If they want PR instead then they need to change the system. Her insulting the entire midwest probably wasn't on the pollsters' radar but in hindsight should've been, as her poll lead clearly went to her head.

Quote: Alfred J Kipper @ 2nd March 2024, 4:16 AM

Winner of the most optimistic prediction of the year so far.

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Possibly - but I'm ever the optimist.
I think, though, by November, the invasion will have stopped, one way or another.
Either a proper ceasefire, or Netanyahu will have achieved the total clearance of Gaza and the land-grab he has had his eye on for some time.
The 'troubles' as it were will grind on for decades until both sides vote in a more conciliatory government.
That I'm not so optimistic about.

Quote: Alfred J Kipper @ 2nd March 2024, 10:14 AM

Go back a year and they got it very wrong, Tories won by a landslide after polls had it very close, a projected hung parliament by some, plus they and the bookmakers didn't see Corbyn coming in the same year. Trump's win was a fairly resounding win in the electoral college, so her 2 million extra votes didn't matter a jot. If they want PR instead then they need to change the system. Her insulting the entire midwest probably wasn't on the pollsters' radar but in hindsight should've been, as her poll lead clearly went to her head.

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Thankfully, Trump has never got carried away like that, of course. Ahem...
Go back a year? Do you mean 2015? The Tories certainly didn't win by a landslide. Majority of just 10 seats! Look it up.

Oh yes. I meant a clear majority.

Probably seemed like a landslide after some very close recent elections.

Quote: Alfred J Kipper @ 2nd March 2024, 10:42 AM

Oh yes. I meant a clear majority.

Probably seemed like a landslide after some very close recent elections.

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Yup. Had five seats fallen differently, it would have been another hung parliament.
Corbyn's 2015 leadership win would have seemed astonishing a few months earlier when he had virtually no support. The polling during the campaign wasn't wrong though. He was clearly the front runner by the end (not that I'm a particular fan).

I wasn't being rude. (apart from the permanently offended - but I can't help that)
It was a catchy ditty to show that polls differ depending on where you look.

Well if you look, at all the British pollsters in the last week or two (whilst Labour are apparently in turmoil due to Gaza) - they all point to a large/huge/massive overall majority

Labour leads in the latest Westminster polling, by pollster:
26% YouGov
24 WeThink
21 Deltapoll
21 Techne
20 Redfield & Wilton
20 Findoutnow
20 Whitestone Insight
18 Savanta
15 More in Common
15 Survation
15 Opinium

Two years since Tories lead in any poll - that's about a thousand polls

To put the above figures into context- Blair won by 12% in 1997

Quote: Stephen Goodlad @ 2nd March 2024, 11:21 AM

I wasn't being rude. (apart from the permanently offended - but I can't help that)
It was a catchy ditty to show that polls differ depending on where you look.

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A bit rude then though.

Quote: lofthouse @ 2nd March 2024, 11:33 AM

Well if you look, at all the British pollsters in the last week or two (whilst Labour are apparently in turmoil due to Gaza) - they all point to a large/huge/massive overall majority

Labour leads in the latest Westminster polling, by pollster:
26% YouGov
24 WeThink
21 Deltapoll
21 Techne
20 Redfield & Wilton
20 Findoutnow
20 Whitestone Insight
18 Savanta
15 More in Common
15 Survation
15 Opinium

Two years since Tories lead in any poll - that's about a thousand polls

To put the above figures into context- Blair won by 12% in 1997

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I actually don't think the election is in the bag for Labour at all. But they are clearly ahead now. The Tories are deeply unpopular and rightly so.
.

They're out of options now

They've tried changing leader (s)

They've tried various big announcements and policies designed to claw back support

Nothing has remotely worked and time is running out fast

I suspect about 40-43% of voters have already decided that they want a change in government now after 14 years

And no tax cuts in the budget will make any difference

They're done

Google Reverse Image Search is a wonderful thing - and, it turns out, a powerful tool against fascism!
Managed to call out three separate far-right posts on Twitter where the image/video was not as described.
And that was just yesterday.
Probably heading for a block from Britain First - but it will have been fun while it lasted.

Wowzers

"New Ipsos poll for the Evening Standard

Lab 47%
Con 20%
LD 9%
Green 8%
Reform 8%

Lowest Tory % ever recorded in an Ipsos poll going back to the start of their regular polling in 1978"