Godot Taxis
Wednesday 23rd February 2022 2:40pm
5,749 posts
Quote: don rushmore @ 22nd February 2022, 10:27 PM
If that were true re: blind luck, the Hall of Fame would be a lot more random than this -
12/13 Gerry McDonnell Top 1K (!)
13/14 Steve Sunshine 3K
14/15 Don Rushmore 18K
15/16 Steve Sunshine 11K
16/17 Gerry McDonnell 11K
17/18 Anton Russell 20K (RU Don Rushmore 32K)
18/19 Don Rushmore 64K
19/20 Gerry McDonnell
20/21 Steve Sunshine/Big Phil
50% skill, 50% luck IMO.
That's actually exactly what a random distribution would look like. Remember when Apple had to create a special algorithm for their iPods to stop people with 20,000 songs hearing three in a row from the same artist?
I think the first thing that stands out is that whilst the best player (Gerry) has three wins, the second best player (Anton) has only one. You and Steve have the same number of wins as Gerry and are obviously nowhere near as good as him and certainly not better than Anton.
I notice you don't mention that in the 14/15 season you should have been disqualified by your own rules as you didn't post for 6 months (not an exaggeration) and just popped up at the end.
Probably also worth mentioning that Gerry didn't play in our league last year and if he had he would have won it, not Steve.
Gerry uses every FPL tool known to man, takes it very seriously and last (and least) knows a lot about football. He should probably carry a handicap. Anton does very well without any gadgets and is the best player in our league after Gerry. I don't think anyone would seriously question that.
Here's a list of the current top 10 in the world right now. I've listed their previous best ever score, the number of times they've finished 100K+ and the number of times they've finished 1 million+
1, Change Name - 16K/2/1
2, BlatantFPL - 801K/1
3, @Mad4FPL - 34K/10/1
4, Licence Tuchel - 40K/7/3
5, Forza Valez - 72K/6/1
6, Oles Brummser - 6K/8/1
7, FC Uffe Löken - 4K/2
8, Strawberto Carlos - 144K/7/2
9, Gangster's Alladyce - 229K/ -
10, Excel IX - 2K/10/3
As you can see a couple of players have done well more than once suggesting an element of skill or control - but they've also done very badly so it could also have been luck. #2 and #8 look to be especially lucky.
I'd put the skill/luck ratio at 10% 'skill', 90% luck. 'Skill' should really be called knowledge - there is actually no skill element.
Quote: Alfred J Kipper @ 22nd February 2022, 11:13 PM
I think it's more skill than luck, but Steve and sometimes Don give up early if they have a poor start and don't think they can make it up, whereas Anton and Godot have been consistently top 3 or 4 since the start.
Quote: don rushmore @ 23rd February 2022, 4:29 AM
Not true.
Here's my finishes:
12/13 - 3
13/14 - 5
14/15 - 2
15/16 - 5
16/17 - 3
17/18 - 5
20/21 - 2
I've never won but I've never finished lower than fifth either. Even the season when they put me in a rubber room I still finished fifth.
