A Horseradish
Saturday 4th April 2020 4:10am [Edited]
8,475 posts
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1. And if Covid-19 were actually a severe strain of influenza and one considered the vaccination take up of NHS staff:
Although Influenza vaccination is recommended for healthcare workers, the vaccination rate against influenza in UK healthcare workers is astonishingly only around 50%. The annual number of deaths of NHS staff from influenza in hospitals etc is unclear as death generally occurs at home, preceded by sickness absence, principally among those choosing not to have the vaccine (young females fearing side effects, young males feeling the risks are overstated).
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6297706/
2. And if this were a typical year in NHS hospitals in terms of the number of deaths generally:
For the 129 trusts from 1 November 2018 to 31 October 2019: There were approximately 9.4 million discharges, from which 288,000 deaths - averaging out at 24,000 deaths a month - were recorded either while in hospital or within 30 days of discharge. This includes deaths from other causes as well as deaths related to the reason for the hospital admission.
https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/clinical-indicators/shmi/current
3. Going back to influenza, if this were Spanish Flu in 1918-19 and we were considering death rates of doctors/nurses:
There was a low but highly variable mortality rate among nurses and physicians during the Spanish Flu pandemic, many of whom did not have personal protection equipment.It is believed that the surprisingly low rates compared with the rates for the public were based to a not insignificant extent on immunity gained from constant exposure.Staff continued in their work because of a devotion to duty which ever since has been expected of staff in any sickness event, major or minor.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4941589/
4. And if we were to question if influenza really does always peak in the winter months:
Finally, the belief that influenza is always worst in the UK between December and March and that if something like influenza occurs in other months then it can't be influenza is fundamentally wrong. The highest peak for swine flu in 2009 occurred in July and it was mainly an epidemic of the summer months. The figures are large and worth considering in the light of current events but so too the length of time it took for the influenza to burn out - not that far off one whole year.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom
COMMENT
Given these facts set out in the relevant documents, a cynic might regard the slowness of getting vaccination and PPE to medical staff during the current crisis not merely as bungle but also part application of the concept of herd immunity which would see greater numbers of staff being protected by immunity in the long run. I am not suggesting that I agree with the approach but it cannot be ruled out. The flu vaccination rates among the workforce are staggeringly low, perhaps implying partly that the claims to the efficacy of the vaccine to the average member of the public are regarded by medics as overstated but more so that they themselves if young and fit opt for longer term immunity via greater exposure.
(Additionally, suicides among junior doctors is actually quite high, not least perhaps because of having to face many grim scenarios. In that light, a cocky "I am fit" approach could be seen as a healthier response to challenges. That though must surely signal alarm bells when it comes to the ability of the general public to take on board what is currently being presented to them. Unable to go out and in effect pretend death away, I'd expect suicides to increase considerably).
As for hospital or post hospitalisation deaths among the public generally, those account for almost half of the 600,000 annual deaths and far exceed the sorts of numbers we have seen to date re Covid-19. In fact, to even equal them, Covid-19 would have to lead to 24,000 deaths in and around hospitals in any one month. Hitherto, such figures, while not hidden from the public, have hardly been advertised for to hear that 288,000 die each year in and around hospitals is off putting in the extreme. Nevertheless, for reassurance,that needs to be viewed in the broader context of 9.4 million plus going annually through the NHS system. It remains to be seen whether after Covid-19 daily news will always now have a section on hospital deathwatch. Sadly, current coverage has set a different cultural tone in which morbidity is at the forefront.