I think that means no. Recent polling in the constituency has certainly not seen him in the lead.
General Election 2015 Page 10
Yes but not by a huge margin.
Conservatives are running a UKIPer who turned back to Conservatism against him.
It's making Thanett voters feel appreciated and that may have been all that was needed
If Cameron and Miliband had anything decent in their veins, they would be actively considering a Conservative-Labour coalition at this stage. In fact, they would be understanding the likelihood of having no other option. Because Cameron wants Britain to be in the EU and would be severely compromised by an arrangement with UKIP. Miliband claims that he wants a United Kingdom and would be equally compromised by an arrangement with SNP. And there's a precedent. The right and left parties did have a formal coalition for some time in West Germany during the post-war years.
I don't say that it would be great news here for the general public. It wouldn't be. However, at least the two main parties could then admit that they are at their most comfortable when identical and effectively guaranteeing a one party state. I have a feeling that the idea is already being mooted, especially in Tory echelons, and it's the one thing the humble electorate is not permitted to know.
For surely there's an inference of it in the way the broad machinery of the state has been operating this week. The letting off of Janner from scrutiny by the CPS is a gesture to Labour. The Tories are also talking up the NHS and cracking down on tax avoidance. Expect Labour to get one or two more seats and for Ed then to be put on the spot. Is he going to save the Union or cuddle up to Nicola as the country's biggest enemy since Lord Haw-Haw? That will be the Conservative line on May 8th.
nb its hilarious that SNP think Labour will form a coalition with them.
Gordy B probably one of the most egomaniacal PMs of all time, could have held power. If he'd agreed to the DUP getting some pretty minor concessions and 5 billion in sweetners. He lead his party into exile instead, it wasn't worth being a big dog shaken by a little tail.
SNP want £158 billion pounds, oversight on everything and control of EU membership, defence and still getting devoloution in 5 years.
Quote: sootyj @ 22nd April 2015, 3:00 PM BSTnb its hilarious that SNP think Labour will form a coalition with them.
Gordy B probably one of the most egomaniacal PMs of all time, could have held power. If he'd agreed to the DUP getting some pretty minor concessions and 5 billion in sweetners. He lead his party into exile instead, it wasn't worth being a big dog shaken by a little tail.
SNP want £158 billion pounds, oversight on everything and control of EU membership, defence and still getting devoloution in 5 years.
Is that point about Gordon and DUP right? That is interesting, sootyj. I am finding it difficult to place SNP on the spectrum policy-wise because Labour say they are to the left of Blair, SNP look like they are to the left of Labour, and SNP described themselves as Social Democrats. If that description is right, it places Ed and Unite to the right of Roy Jenkins in 1983 when their opponents are depicting them as more akin to Michael Foot. It is Labour rather than SNP that has the identity problem. It seems to want to be Tony Blair lite, John Smith circa 1992 and, I dunno, someone Centre-Left in 1983. Silkin? Whatever, the fact that their American adviser is urging them to say and promise little - as he did successfully for Obama - gives Ed M huge room to roam after any victory at the election.
A footnote:
Let us say for the sake of argument that the current Labour Party is just a bit of modification to Blair and essentially Tory lite while the SNP are to the left of them and genuine Social Democrats. If so, it is a sort of reversal from the position in 1983 when Labour were to the left of the Social Democratic Party (SDP). The SDP proved entirely ineffective in breaking the mould. Mrs Thatcher benefited for decades while Scotland had little voice at all. So it is ironic - but perhaps almost a sort of force of nature - that the mould could be broken by a similar small social democratic group on the left of Labour rather than the right of them. Perhaps that was always the only way it could have happened and that the price of rebalancing the economic scales was fragmentation, ie Scottish Independence?
SNP policies are socialist as long as someone else pays the bills
Quote: Ben700 @ 22nd April 2015, 4:37 PM BSTCameron, as the incumbent PM gets the first chance to form a Government in the event of a hung parliament doesn't he?
2010 seats won:
Tory: 306
Lib Dem: 57Lib Dems will inevitably lose a lot of seats, but as long as they get over 326 between them which should easily happen, I can see a Con-Lib coalition again.
Yes, I think he does. Consequently, if he can't get enough from parties other than Labour to carry him over 326, he can suggest a National Unity government to Labour. If Labour refuse it, they will be depicted by the Tories for the next five years not only as the party which didn't offer voters an EU referendum but one that was prepared to break the nation. It's possible even if it's not probable.
It's the switch from Scots Labour to SNP and Libs to UKIP/Labour/Conservative that's the wild cards and as cards they're pretty wild.
Quote: Ben700 @ 22nd April 2015, 4:37 PM BSTCameron, as the incumbent PM gets the first chance to form a Government in the event of a hung parliament doesn't he?
He can't have because the last hung parliament didn't see Brown teaming up with Clegg and Clegg would've said yes to anyone to become deputy PM. It has to be down to seats, whoever has more gets first dibs.
HP sauce is bringing out a Hung Parliament version for game pie. Could be popular.
Quote: sootyj @ 22nd April 2015, 3:00 PM BSTGordy B probably one of the most egomaniacal PMs of all time.
Really? I would have said his problem was modesty. Especially with Mr Teeth...
Very hard to call but mildly fascinating. Here's one for you, Labour-Libdem or Labour-Libdem-Ukip coalition.
I'll make my punt now that Tories are done for, 2nd place on seats and Labour can get enough from non SNP parties to get coalition Govt.
Cameron overconfidence will see Ednerd the weird crowned PM. They'll have to remake Blackadder.
Quote: Alfred J Kipper @ 23rd April 2015, 8:41 AM BSTHe can't have because the last hung parliament didn't see Brown teaming up with Clegg and Clegg would've said yes to anyone to become deputy PM. It has to be down to seats, whoever has more gets first dibs.
Incorrect. Do you not remember the newspaper headlines about a squatter in Downing Street as El Gordo held on for almost a week in 2010, desperately scrabbing to find a way to find agreement to keep himself in power?
Quote: Aaron @ 23rd April 2015, 10:19 PM BSTIncorrect. Do you not remember the newspaper headlines about a squatter in Downing Street as El Gordo held on for almost a week in 2010, desperately scrabbing to find a way to find agreement to keep himself in power?
I remember it.
What will they say this time if it is Cameron with a begging bowl in the Brighton Pavilion?
Quote: Aaron @ 23rd April 2015, 10:19 PM BSTIncorrect. Do you not remember the newspaper headlines about a squatter in Downing Street as El Gordo held on for almost a week in 2010, desperately scrabbing to find a way to find agreement to keep himself in power?
I thought that was simply because it took a week for the Tories to lower themselves to grovel to the liberals. Cameron probably had to take intensive acting lessons.
So then how are my main parliamentary candidates doing with the e-mails I have been sending them? Here is the question again. "Will you unequivocally oppose fracking in this constituency until 2020?"
Conservative - Initial e-mail and one reminder
No reply
Labour - Initial e-mail and three reminders
No reply
Lib Dem - Initial e-mail and one reminder
Curt one sentence response. Would oppose. Perhaps someone should inform Clegg.
UKIP - Initial e-mail and one reminder
No reply.
Green - Detailed e-mail with warm words
No reply. The Green position is known but it would have been nice to have had a reply.
These people have absolutely no interest in the concerns of the general public. They just want us to know about them and to vote for them so that they can dictate to us all. Questioning of any kind is simply ignored. It is the same now across the entire spectrum of public service. It isn't a service!!!