If all concerned were sensible surely joint sovereignty would be the fair solution?
Oh wait...
I read the news today oh boy! Page 1,261
Thatcher would have won the 83 election regardless of the Falklands. It's not for nothing that Labours manifesto for that year is often referred to as the longest suicide note in history.
Quote: chipolata @ August 6 2013, 10:36 PM BSTThatcher would have won the 83 election regardless of the Falklands. It's not for nothing that Labours manifesto for that year is often referred to as the longest suicide note in history.
The changes didn't occur as late as the manifestos but when the SDP took off which divided the Labour vote and then particularly in spring 1982 with the Falklands. That's the sudden leap in blue.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1979-1983
I did not vote Labour in 1983 - EEC reasons - but it's been a 30 year myth, this.
If Miliband lurched to the left, he would romp home finding that the squeezed middle is minute compared with the millions who would actually like to be there.
He hasn't and I predict a Conservative victory.
Not too sure
Labour were three terms in , Gordon Brown was unbelievably unpopular, there had been the Iraq war and the recession and so on and so on and despite all that, the Tories couldn't even get an overall majority last time
Quote: lofthouse @ August 6 2013, 11:00 PM BSTNot too sure
Labour were three terms in , Gordon Brown was unbelievably unpopular, there had been the Iraq war and the recession and so on and so on and despite all that, the Tories couldn't even get an overall majority last time
That's a very good point. The maths, recent history and demographic changes stack up against the Tories who haven't won outright since 1992. The opinion polls look ok for Labour currently. But personally I think they are in for a horrible shock as they have gauged it wrongly. People will choose bogus efficiency unless they truly think the alternative option chimes. It's just one opinion. I become more left wing with every passing year so that needs to be factored in. But it's too late for the serious stuff, that is, for me anyway.
This should one of the easiest periods in history for an opposition party - and Labour are a toothless, silent waste of time
The silence is deafening
It's as though they want to lose!
The lead of about 5 percent in the polls is very poor at this stage
But people are fickle and I suspect if David Milliband was in charge instead the lead would be more like 15 percent
Quote: lofthouse @ August 6 2013, 11:13 PM BSTThis should one of the easiest periods in history for an opposition party - and Labour are a toothless, silent waste of time
The silence is deafening
It's as though they want to lose!
The lead of about 5 percent in the polls is very poor at this stage
But people are fickle and I suspect if David Milliband was in charge instead the lead would be more like 15 percent
Yes but a lot of that is to do with perceived style. Ed is hovering just above Foot's donkey jacket in the public eye. I don't mind him. He was one of the 50 odd who didn't fiddle their expenses. I remember those things. Irrespective of political differences, his brother doesn't convince me. Rightly or wrongly, I sense untrustworthiness and find him marginally creepy. But you are right in what you are saying. He is liked.
I can see another hung parliament
Only this time, it will be Labour doing a deal with the Lib Dems
Yes, the David is definite creepy - stary eyes. I've long thought him an alien.
Quote: lofthouse @ August 6 2013, 11:24 PM BSTI can see another hung parliament
Only this time, it will be Labour doing a deal with the Lib Dems
Could be. Shame it isn't Charlie Kennedy even with his problems.
Clegg's voice. It's tight like a frog's. I've never heard him say anything other than gribbit.
Quote: Horseradish @ August 6 2013, 9:05 PM BST1979-1980. The new Government considers that defending the Falklands is too costly. Consequently it is decided that Argentina must be persuaded not to attack by offering it the islands in 99 years time. This will be arranged by lease.
It matters little to HMG what the islanders think or that a deal will be done with fascists. Considerable amounts of British military hardware are returned to Britain on the assumption Argentina will agree.
Argentina does not agree. Instead, on seeing the cost cutting, it decides to invade. This is presented to the general public as a surprising and shocking attack but it has effectively been triggered. Much of what is sent out to defend the islands had ironically been there in 1978.
The Conservatives win the 1983 election largely on the basis of the Falkands success.
I don't think that is right, I doubt that we had much stuff or real expense in the Falklands in the pre-1979 period. I think we had 2 small (18 seat ? ) hovercraft and somewhere between 20 and a hundred marines. My eldest brother as a Naval officer was one of the hovercraft pilots.
Sorry Bill - I wrote quickly and from memory.
1. Much of what is sent out to defend the islands had ironically been there in 1978.
I stick by this sentence. Under Labour in 1977-1978, the frigates Alacrity and Phoebe plus the Dreadnought took part in Operation Journeyman, a deployment to the South Atlantic, to deter possible Argentine aggression against the Falkland Islands. Later in 1978, they were all back in the UK.
While Dreadnought effectively ceased operating in 1980, Alacrity had to depart from Devonport for the Falklands again in Spring 1982. As for Phoebe, after a short spell in the UK in 1978, it had been sent to patrol the Caribbean but then in Spring 1982 it too had to return to the Falklands.
2. Considerable amounts of British military hardware are returned to Britain.
This sentence is not incorrect but it was unintentionally somewhat misleading time wise. It probably implied that the Conservatives rather than Labour had brought back Alacrity and Phoebe. They didn't. However, it appears that the decommissioning of Dreadnought was overseen by the Conservatives in 1980.
Additionally, the Conservatives were engaged in an exercise of lowering islanders' expectations of a British future. A key part of that process, which in truth was following through on Labour plans, was the stated determination to withdraw HMS Endurance which was stationed there. There was already a 1981 White Paper for defence cuts. Argentinia saw that - and the islanders' resistance - as a chance to attack.
One final note. The British originally offered a 200 year lease. Argentina said it might be willing to accept 75 years but added that it doubted it was practicable. The figure of 99 years was then seriously discussed. It shows that HMG was willing to consider giving way to the demands of a fascist regime to the tune of 80%.
So the ships were not permanently in the Falklands they were exercising in the vicinity. They have to exercise somewhere and the expense is continuous, not directly related to the Falklands.
In practice there was never enough military might stationed there to resist an all out invasion.
Yes UK was considering handing over to Argentina, but their Government got impatient and invaded and thereby ruined any chance that they will ever get the Falklands. Britains (now UK) never hand over anything peaceably if another tries to take it by force.
Quote: billwill @ August 7 2013, 2:52 PM BSTSo the ships were not permanently in the Falklands they were exercising in the vicinity. They have to exercise somewhere and the expense is continuous, not directly related to the Falklands.
In practice there was never enough military might stationed there to resist an all out invasion.
Yes UK was considering handing over to Argentina, but their Government got impatient and invaded and thereby ruined any chance that they will ever get the Falklands. Britains (now UK) never hand over anything peaceably if another tries to take it by force.
Can I say "yes and no"? Agree that there was never enough military might stationed there to resist an all out invasion. Also agree that the expense of maintaining a fleet is continuous and not directly related to a specific location such as the Falklands. But that Argentinian regime emerged in 1976. David Owen was British Foreign Secretary from 1977 to 1979. He decided on a show of force as soon as there was sabre rattling over the Falklands and the Argentinians then backed down. Many in the subsequent Conservative Government - including Carrington? - felt that had it done the same, the war could have been prevented.
Instead, they said "to hell with this expense every so many years - try to appease them by handing it over". The Argentinians were lukewarm about the proposals. The islanders were furious. Frankly, it was bungle after bungle. Nott lost his temper with the islanders at an absolutely crucial moment as was his way. It meant a war eventually had to be fought at a time we couldn't afford one. And many sadly lost their lives.
I could tell you a true story or several about Owen. I don't like the guy. Nevertheless, his decisiveness was in sharp contrast to Callaghan and Healey's economic shambles. In 1980-1981, life wasn't much better. The Tories were also seen as economically inept. Some Conservatives even wanted to replace Margaret. But the Falklands mess, which ran in parallel, was largely unseen by the public. So when invasion happened, many thought it was a bolt out of the blue, all perfectly dreadful and, well, thank goodness for our response. The initial panic subsided when the electorate realised the islands weren't off the coast of Scotland. Still, there was ra-ra-ra. Britain's great. It was all presentation. The landslide election victory followed in similar vein.
Mr Bussell seems to be all over the Daily Mail website again.