Best in Show

Can anyone tell for sure which comics will become successful?

If you were at an open mic night full of hopeful new acts - young and old, because comedy is nicely equal-opportunities like that - could you pick who might go on to greatness? A prime-time BBC1 show, arena tours, maybe household name status? Or at least who might go onto decent critical acclaim? Anyone with an interest in the comedic arts would probably like to think so, but spotting the real future superstars can be a tricky business.

The thing is, those open mics and new-act competitions will only give you a little flavour of a performer's potential, and a lot of other stuff can come into it. Is that first bunch of jokes they wrote as a wide-eyed student the best they'll ever have? Does that quirky style really have crossover potential? And will they have the drive - and the luck - to succeed?

For agents, managers and the like, taking on any new comic is a bit of a gamble. Some people just have a knack for finding stuff, of course, in business and everyday life. We all know that savant-like figure who always know where to find the largest discount coupons, or the best bingo bonuses for online punters, or the most sensible bank to stick your deposit, with a handy reward scheme attached. But rolling the dice on new talent; that's more difficult to quantify.

We can probably all think of acts who we saw years ago and thought 'this guy/girl/group will be absolutely massive' after a particularly inspired show. But then they don't quite take off as early as they'd hope to, and in the meantime they see a load of other (less talented) comics who do get the big breaks, or they listen to industry people's advice rather than trusting their own instincts, and their next show is a disaster. They hate it, the audience hate it: that happens.

Or sometimes a sketch group will absolutely nail the live stuff over a number of years, gain a healthy and loyal following at the Edinburgh Fringe and beyond, and secure themselves the promising TV development deal their talents deserve. But then too many disparate voices get involved in their potential series, the pilot is a total mess, it vanishes without trace and gradually the group go their separate ways. That happens, too.

And then there are those comics who used up all of their amazing material in one creative splurge early on. There is at least one act knocking around now who came out with a bunch of astonishing stuff before cleaning up his offstage act, after which the now much-more-sober comic discovered that he couldn't write anything anywhere near as good, ever again. Still, a lot of comedians have made a decent living using the same old material over and over.

The fact is, in comedy there's only sure-fire way to get successful: work at it. Write a lot, gig a lot, and you may never become a superstar, but you will almost certainly get better. And that's something.